NZ Election Uncertainty: Should You Wait Before Transferring Money Overseas?

If you’re planning to move money overseas, you may be wondering whether to wait until New Zealand’s election result is confirmed before making your transfer.

It’s an understandable question. When you’re moving house, buying a property or transferring a large sum, even a small change in the exchange rate can make a considerable difference.

But a clearer political picture doesn’t necessarily mean a better exchange rate. And with official election results scheduled for 27 November, followed by any negotiations needed to form a government, waiting for everything to settle could take longer than you expect.

Here’s where things stand, and what I’d encourage you to consider before deciding when to move your money.

Where Does the Election Result Stand?

As at 13 November, New Zealand is still awaiting the official outcome of the 7 November election.

The preliminary count gave National, ACT and New Zealand First a combined 67 seats in a projected 131-seat Parliament. That is a narrow provisional majority, with 66 seats needed. The Opportunity Party also crossed the 5% threshold, provisionally securing seven seats. These numbers can change following the official count.

In its 11 November update, the Electoral Commission said the preliminary results did not include approximately 400,000 special votes. The official count involves checking voting eligibility, recounting ordinary votes and counting eligible special votes before the results are released.

27 November is the scheduled results date, rather than a promise that government formation will be complete that day. Any coalition or support arrangements still needed may take longer to settle.

For someone with an overseas payment due, that distinction matters. Your settlement date or supplier invoice may arrive before political certainty does.

For more background, read my NZ election and New Zealand dollar guide.

What Has Happened to the New Zealand Dollar?

The Kiwi dollar’s weakness did not begin with the election result.

BNZ’s market commentary published on 9 November reported that NZD/USD had traded just below 0.5530 in the preceding week, its lowest level since April 2025. BNZ attributed that week’s weakness to broad US dollar strength and reduced risk appetite.

Since the election, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s daily reference rates have shown movement in both directions:

These are daily market reference rates, not the full trading range or a customer transfer quote. Your provider’s rate and any fees will affect the amount you receive.

Notice how NZD/USD and NZD/AUD have not followed exactly the same path. Between 9 and 13 November, the NZD weakened against the US dollar at these reference points, while strengthening against the Australian dollar.

That is why I always come back to the currencies you’re actually exchanging. A headline saying “the New Zealand dollar has fallen” may be referring to NZD/USD, while your transfer to Australia faces a different picture.

The Election is Only One Part of the Picture

Political developments can influence confidence and expectations about economic policy. But they sit alongside other forces, including interest-rate expectations, overseas economic data, global risk appetite and movements in the currency on the other side of your transfer.

BNZ’s 13 November commentary highlighted a strong US dollar and market expectations about further Federal Reserve tightening, with NZD/USD falling below 0.5550. That is another reminder to look beyond Wellington when considering the Kiwi’s direction.

There is no reliable rule that says confirming a government will make the NZD rise. Markets may already have anticipated an outcome, or overseas developments may have a greater influence on the day.

Waiting could produce a better rate. It could also leave you with a worse one and less time to act.

A “Better Rate” Depends on Which Way Your Money Is Moving

For GCA readers moving between New Zealand and Australia, this is particularly important.

If you’re sending NZD to Australia, a higher NZD/AUD rate generally means more Australian dollars for the same New Zealand dollar amount.

If you’re bringing AUD into New Zealand, a lower NZD/AUD rate generally means more New Zealand dollars for the same Australian dollar amount.

For example, exchanging NZ$500,000 at the following illustrative rates would produce:

These are examples, not forecasts. They show why a two-cent move can matter: on NZ$500,000, it changes the Australian dollar amount by A$10,000.

If you’re planning a move across the Tasman, my complete guide to transferring money from New Zealand to Australia explains the process and costs to consider.

How to Plan a Transfer While the Result Is Uncertain

1. Start With Your Deadline and the Amount You Need

Before trying to pick a transfer date, work out:

• How much needs to arrive in the receiving currency?

• When must it be available in the recipient’s account?

• What exchange rate keeps the payment within your budget?

• How much room do you have if the rate moves against you?

For a property settlement or business payment, certainty over the required amount may matter more than the possibility of a slightly better rate later.

Allow time for account approval, identity and source-of-funds checks, payment cut-offs and bank processing. Speak with the provider early so you understand the timing for your particular transfer.

2. Consider Whether Transferring in Stages Would Help

If your circumstances allow, converting part of the money now and the remainder later can spread your exposure across more than one exchange rate.

This does not guarantee a better overall result. If the rate improves, only the unconverted portion benefits. If it worsens, you have already secured part of the money.

It can, however, reduce the pressure of trying to choose one perfect day. Ask about any extra fees or minimum amounts before splitting a transfer.

3. Ask About Tools That Fit Your Payment

Rate alerts can let you know when a target market rate is reached. They do not reserve that rate or automatically complete a transfer.

Forward contracts, where available, allow you to agree an exchange rate for a future payment. The provider’s forward quote may differ from today’s spot rate. A forward can provide budget certainty, but it is a binding commitment: you generally give up the benefit of a later favourable market move, and deposits, additional margin requirements or cancellation costs may apply. Eligibility and terms vary, so ask the provider to explain them before committing.

These tools serve different purposes. The useful starting point is how much certainty your payment needs.

4. Compare What Actually Arrives

It’s easy to spend days watching small exchange-rate movements while overlooking the margin built into a provider’s quote.

Ask: “If I send this amount today, how much will arrive after all known fees?”

Compare quotes as close together in time as possible, using the same amount and currency pair. Check the exchange rate, transfer fees, potential intermediary or receiving-bank charges, and expected delivery time.

A “no transfer fee” offer can still include an exchange-rate margin. Understanding both helps you make a fair comparison.

For a property purchase, you can also read my comparison of FX providers and banks for overseas property transfers.

Should You Wait Until 27 November?

There isn’t one answer that suits everyone.

If your transfer is flexible and you can comfortably accept an unfavourable move, you may choose to wait. If you have a firm payment date or a budget that leaves little room for currency movements, it is worth exploring your options before the result is confirmed.

From my years of trading currencies and moving money internationally myself, I know how easy it is to keep waiting for a slightly better rate. Having a clear plan can help take some of the pressure out of that decision.

You don’t need to predict the next government to start preparing your transfer.

This article provides general information, not personalised financial advice or an exchange-rate forecast. Market conditions can change. Confirm current rates, product terms and payment timelines with your chosen provider.

GCA’s guidance is free. We may receive a referral commission from a provider if you use our introduction, at no cost to you. Provider exchange-rate margins and fees may apply.